Scenario 1: Inflation keeps going lower, tariffs blow over with most countires making deals quickly (ie over the next weeks) and China taking longer but still making a deal in late Q2. As positive tariff headlines roll in, IE India cutting a deal, markets rally. Rate cuts come again as the FED ends QT in June. Iran peace deal and Ukraine peace deal calm markets more. No US recession as economic numbers bounce back on easing of tariff fears. Global liquidity keeps pumping and we see prices pump until early 2026 when analysts think global m2 tops out. In this scenario we see BTC to 150k in June, consolidate July to September before starting the final rally of the cycle to 250k. Sol to $1,000. ETH might even break its old ATH, just maybe…
Scenario 2: The middle path. Neither Valhalla nor Goblin Town. Trade deals are made, but too much damage is done and the US see massively slower growth but just avoids a recession. The China deal takes much longer to work out than markets anticipate. FED ends QT, but gives no rate cuts on the back of tariff inflation fears. Inflation does start to creep up at the end of Q2, but not enough by year end to be a big problem, but just enough to stop the FED cutting. Global M2 peaks much earlier than analysts expect. Stocks are shit for 2025 but lows are in already. Housing remains troubled by high rates. In this scenario we get one final rally between now and June. BTC maybe hits a triple top or slightly higher maybe 120k. Most alts don’t even get back to highs of December. This will be the exit rally. BTC ranges in 80-100k zone rest of year following the top in June. Alts bleed more as altcoin ETF reality fails to deliver and VC unlocks flood a low liquidity market. 2026 we see markets recover and economy heat up. 4 year cycle for BTC is broken and we get 250k BTC in late 26.
Scenario 3: Goblin Town. A place no one wants to go. Too much damage has already been done by the tariff war. A recession comes. Housing markets collapse. Stocks crater another 20% or more. No China trade deal as the decide to implode their own economy as it will take the USA down with them. Huge bankruptcies and supply chain chaos. China takes Taiwan. USA starts a war with Iran. Trump actually finds a way to fire Powell and causes a black swan crash in US markets. Tariffs, war, supply chain disruption cause inflation to surge again, possibly even leading to the FED hiking rates again. Unemployment explodes worsened by AI taking mroe white collar jobs. USA announces it will not buy any BTC, and altcoin ETFs while approved see near zero inflows. These are the catalysts, and any one of them could be enough to fuck markets that are already paranoid and fragile. And the charts are already looking cooked as fuck for Bitcoin and stocks today. Won’t take much to push them over the edge. In this scenario we see a full on hard core savage bear market that ends sometime in 2026. The 4 year cycle theory is broken. All on chain metrics are invalidated. Bitcoin heads back to painful lows. We all pray 50k holds. ETH back to mid triple digits. SOL mid to low 2 digits. We all question what we have even been doing with our lives the last years in this scam ass industry.
My base case is scenario one. Scenario two would not surprise me. Scenario three… fuck… you better be praying.
